ASX 200 Forecast: Why the Market Held Its Ground Despite NAB’s Shock and a Hormuz Blockade

The Australian market is showing some serious teeth. Despite the global chaos of naval blockades and another 7% spike in crude oil, the ASX 200 refuses to fold. It’s a masterclass in psychological stoicism. While the Strait of Hormuz is effectively turned into a permission-based corridor, investors are quietly repositioning. They aren’t panicking. They’re rotating. We’re seeing a tactical shift out of war-premium energy trades and into domestic quality names. I think the market is front-running the optimism expected from President Trump’s upcoming comments. As the April ceasefire deadline approaches, the stubborn underlying bid remains the dominant force.

NAB’s Warning Shot and the Invisible Shield

National Australia Bank (NAB) provided the cold reality after announcing $2.05 billion in one-off charges. This isn’t just an accounting tweak. It’s a signal of a harder landing, with credit impairment charges doubling to $706 million. NAB is building a buffer for transport and agriculture sectors, the front lines of rising fuel costs. Their move to a discounted DRP is effectively a quiet capital raise. Yet, CBA and Westpac posted gains. So it says a lot about the underlying conviction when buyers step in to defend the line against such a heavy banking shock.

Weekly Trend Stays Constructive

The weekly structure still leans upward. Price remains well above the longer-term recovery base and, more importantly, stays above the lower weekly Supertrend band near 8,750. That tells me the broader uptrend hasn’t broken. What has changed is momentum. The index again ran into supply in the 9,100-9,223 zone and backed away. We’re struggling to convert new highs into a clean weekly breakout. It’s a market digesting gains near the upper end of its range. As long as 8,754 holds, the setup stays constructive. A decisive push through 9,223 would be the signal that buyers are ready to extend again.

Weekly ASX 200 Confirms the Macro Uptrend Remains

Weekly ASX 200 candlestick chart with Supertrend support at 8,754 and resistance at 9,223. Source: TradingView

Daily Recovery Battles Congestion

The daily chart looks healthier than it did during the March washout. The rebound from 8,255 was strong enough to reclaim the 21-EMA. Price is now holding above that trend gauge. That matters. It tells us dip-buyers have reasserted themselves. RSI is around 55, which is constructive without being stretched. In other words, momentum has improved, but it’s not yet strong enough to say the index is in full trend acceleration mode. The market has stabilized and is now trying to build above the 8,900 area. The focus is on whether buyers can force a daily close through the recent congestion zone to re-open the path toward 9,050 and the 9,223 high.

Daily Momentum Trying to Hold

Daily ASX 200 price action chart. Source: TradingView

Renko Bricks Signal Short-Term Softness

The Renko chart shows a different story in the very short term. Intraday momentum has flattened. We’ve seen a series of swings around the 8,900-9,050 area, but each push higher has struggled to stick. Price is hovering around under the short-term Supertrend level. The immediate tape has softened. That said, this doesn’t look like outright breakdown behavior. The 500-SMA is still rising. RSI is below 50 and the Z-score is near -0.3. This combination reads more like fading momentum and consolidation than aggressive distribution. The Renko view suggests a pause after the rebound.

The 11-brick Renko Highlights a Cooling of Intraday Momentum

11-brick traditional Renko chart of ASX 200 showing intraday consolidation. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 8.250,8,750

Key Resistance Levels: 9,045, 9230

Medium Term Path: My read is that the ASX 200 is still in a recovery phase, but the market needs a fresh catalyst to move higher. The weekly and daily charts remain constructive. The Renko chart says near-term momentum has cooled into a sideways-to-soft patch. The near-term pivot is 8,843 on the daily EMA. Hold above that, and the index still has a reasonable shot at retesting 9,230. Lose that area, and the market likely drifts back toward 8,750. The critical pivot point arrives when the current ceasefire expires. Watch the tape closely.