AUD/USD Bears to Target Sub-$0.65 on the US Jobs Report

It is another quiet Asian session for the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. There are no material stats from Australia for investors to consider this morning. The lack of stats will leave investors to dissect Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and today’s US Jobs Report.

Another hot US Jobs Report would pressure the Aussie and Kiwi. Following recent forward guidance from the RBNZ and RBA, monetary policy divergence remains firmly in favor of the US dollar.

Market bets of a 50-basis point Fed interest hike leave the Aussie and Kiwi facing further downside risks. However, Fed policy uncertainty resurfaced on Wednesday. During the second day of testimony, Fed Chair Powell reopened the door to a less hawkish March rate hike, cushioning the downside on Thursday.

Earlier this morning, Business PMI numbers from New Zealand delivered Kiwi dollar support. In February, the Business PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.0.

AUD/USD Price Action

The Aussie was up 0.02% to $0.65905 this morning. A mixed start to the day saw the AUD/USD fall to an early low of $0.65881 before rising to a high of $0.65905.

Technical Indicators

The AUD/USD needs to move through the $0.6601 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6625 and the Thursday high of $0.66362. A return to $0.66 would signal a bullish session. However, the Aussie Dollar would need the US Job Report to support a breakout session.

In case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6661. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6721.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6565 in play. However, barring a sharp jump in nonfarm payrolls, the AUD/USD pair should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6540.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6480.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The AUD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.66848. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.6625) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6661) and the 50-day EMA ($0.66848). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.66848) would leave the Major Support Levels in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the Kiwi was flat at $0.60984. A mixed start to the day saw the NZD/USD fall to an early low of $0.60930 before steadying.

Technical Indicators

The NZD/USD needs to move through the $0.6115 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6134 and the Thursday high of $0.61511. A return to $0.6130 would signal a recovery session. However, the US Jobs Report will be the key driver.

In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6170. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6225.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6079 in play. However, barring a US data-fueled sell-off, the NZD/USD pair would likely avoid sub-$0.6050. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6060 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6005.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The NZD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.61682. The 50-day slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An NZD/USD move through R1 ($0.6134) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.61682) and R2 ($0.6170). A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.61682) would leave S1 ($0.6079) in play.