AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Australian Dollar Rebounds After Yesterday’s Sell-Off

AUD/USD Video 19.03.21.

Australian Dollar Moves Higher Ahead Of The Weekend

AUD/USD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 0.7760 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has once again faced resistance near the 92 level and is currently trying to settle below the support at 91.75. In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the support at 91.50 which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

Today, Australia reported that Retail Sales decreased by 1.1% month-over-month in February compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 0.4%. The previous report for January was revised from 0.5% to 0.3%. This is a surprising development as Australia’s economy enjoyed a robust rebound thanks to the country’s success in virus containment.

Interestingly, the huge sell-off in the oil market did not put much pressure on commodity-related currencies including Australian dollar. WTI oil is currently trying to get back above the psychologically important $60 level as it attempts to rebound after the major sell-off. If this attempt is successful, Australian dollar may get more support.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange market traders will remain focused on the developments in the U.S. government bond market. Treasury yields have declined from recent highs which is bearish for the American currency, but it remains to be seen whether this pullback will be sustainable as inflation fears continue to grow.

Technical Analysis

 

AUD/USD is currently testing the resistance at the 20 EMA at 0.7760. In case this test is successful, AUD/USD will head towards the next resistance level which is located at 0.7780.

A move above the resistance at 0.7780 will open the way to the test of the resistance at 0.7800. In case AUD/USD gets above the resistance at 0.7800, it will move towards the next resistance level at 0.7820.

On the support side, a move below the 20 EMA at 0.7760 will push AUD/USD towards the next support level which is located at the 50 EMA at 0.7730. If AUD/USD declines below the 50 EMA, it will move towards the support at 0.7700.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.