AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Consolidate

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 24-01-2024

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the early hours here on Tuesday as we continue to hang around the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators. Obviously, these indicators have a lot of technical importance because moving averages that are widely followed, of course, do tend to cause some noise in markets. Because of this, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior due to the fact that we have seen so much in the way of confusion when it comes to the world’s economic situation.

That being said, when I look at the Australian dollar, I pay attention to the larger picture, obviously, and that larger picture dictates that the 0.65 level underneath is an area of importance. It is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to, as it could be the bottom of the trading range. 0.65 previously had been resistant, so you would assume there’s a certain amount of market memory coming into the picture as well.

On the upside, we have the 0.69 level, which is the top of the range from what I can see and at this point in time, I think you have to look at that as a major barrier or maybe a major target for longer-term traders. In the middle, we have the 0.67 level and therefore, I think that is what you will have to look at as fair value. Also, it is worth noting that we spent quite a bit of time in this area previously.

In this environment, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we try to get to the 0.67 level but there is the alternative scenario where we break down below the 0.65 level and go looking to 0.6350. In that environment, I guess the cause of the movement would be a pro US dollar move across the board and it would probably have a lot to do with the idea of running towards safety. Finally, pay attention to China, to the global growth situation, and to the 10-year yield in the United States because it all comes into play here in determining where the Australian dollar goes next.

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