AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Consolidate

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 31-01-2024

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Tuesday to pierce the 50-day EMA, but only to turn around and show signs of negativity. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to consolidate and therefore you also have to look at it in the prism of a noisy and choppy market that’s trying to find some type of directionality. Underneath, the 0.65 level now offers significant support and therefore it’s likely to be a hard floor in the market. If we turn around and break above the 50-day EMA, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 0.67 level above.

That is what I consider to be fair value for the market. Breaking above that, then opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.69 level, which is an area that I think continues to be your ceiling in the market. So that is your larger consolidation, but I think in the short term we’re just bouncing around between the 50-day EMA and the 0.65 level.

You should also keep in mind that Wednesday features the FOMC meeting, which of course is going to be an area that a lot of people have to pay attention to, it is not necessarily the FOMC decision, but it’s more or less a statement that’s going to come with it. And of course, at the press conference, everybody is waiting to see whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to continue to see the need to cut and how rapidly they will, and that will have a major influence on the US dollar. The Aussie dollar of course is highly influenced by commodities, global trade, and you know those types of things, so we will have to see how that plays out as well. Either way, we are getting fairly close to the bottom of the range that I think we are going to hang in.

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