AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to See Support

Christopher Lewis
Updated: Jun 2, 2024, 09:57 GMT+00:00

The Aussie continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but it clearly sees a lot of support underneath. The market will continue to look at global risk appetite, and of course commodity markets as per usual.

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Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has initially fallen during the trading session on Tuesday to reach down to the 0.6650 level. This is an area that, of course, is important and a lot of people will be paying close attention to it.

So, with that, it’s not surprising that we have turned things around. And now the question is, do we bounce towards the 0.67 level given enough time? If we break out of this 100 point range, then it probably leads to the next 100 points. Be it higher or lower, if we rally, then the 0.68 level touches a massive triangle on the longer term chance, and that could cause some resistance.

If we break down below the 0.6650 level, then we could go looking toward the 200 day EMA, which currently has the 50 day EMA crossing above it, kicking off the so-called Golden Cross. I’m not a fan of this. I think it quite frankly causes more trouble than it’s worth, but occasionally you can take advantage of longer term moves that are sustainable from it.

Overall, you have to keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to the commodity markets, to what’s going on in China and beyond that, it’s just generally a risk on currency. So, the exact opposite could be true. We could see a geopolitical problem drive money into the US dollar and that would be negative. So, I think you will continue to see a lot of choppiness in the near term, but at the end of the day, this is a market that will eventually have to make a bigger decision.

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About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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