AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Test Moving Averages

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar has rallied a little bit during the early hours to touch the 200 day EMA on Thursday as the market continues to look for its footing. It’s worth noting that every time we rally, there does seem to be a bit of a pushback. So, I think that the Australian dollar is still essentially stuck in an area of consolidation and noise.

The question now is where is the top? I think that is what is being asked. I believe at this point in time, the 0.6625 level is an area that you will have to watch very closely. And then again, you also have to watch the 200 day EMA that has already caused some noise. If we were to break above the 0.6625 level, then I think you have a real shot at going to the 0.67 level.

On the downside, you have the 0.65 level as a bit of a magnet for price and the 0.6450 level as support. Anything below the 0.6450 level opens up quite a bit of selling. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly influenced by global economic conditions, the interest rate situation in both Australia and the United States, and of course the idea of whether or not China is getting back to work. After all, Chinese economic numbers have been a bit of a mess as of late, so that is something worth paying attention to. The question here isn’t so much whether or not the market can go higher, but whether or not it has enough momentum to break above the 0.6625 level.

As things stand right now, it certainly looks like we might try, but whether or not we actually have that momentum remains to be seen. I suspect we are just simply carving out a new range from which to trade between. I think at this point in time it should become a little bit more obvious, but in the short term expect quite a bit of volatility and noisy behavior.

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