AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gain

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 10.08.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but then gave back enough of the gains to show signs of hesitation. The 0.65 level is an area that’s been very important multiple times, so I do think it’s very interesting that we continue to fail in this area. If we were to break down below the 0.65 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 0.64 level underneath, which has proven itself to be supportive in the past.

If we do rally from here, the 0.66 level offers resistance, as it was previous support and therefore a certain amount of “market memory” comes into the picture. Keep in mind that the Aussie is highly sensitive to commodity markets, and of course the global economy itself. All things being equal, the 50-Day EMA sits near the 0.67 level, so if we were to break above the 0.66 level, then that would be the next target, but I do think that it is an area that would be difficult to get above.

In general, I think we continue to see a lot of noise more than anything else, and therefore you need to pay close attention to your position sizing because eventually we will break out. In general, this is a market that is looking for some type of momentum going forward, and I certainly think that there are enough things out there that could throw the market around. However, right now it looks as if the market is relatively comfortable going sideways in general, which makes a certain amount of sense, as August is typically a major holiday month.

In general, I think the lack of volume is probably the big story here, and of course whether or not the Federal Reserve will remain as tight as they claim. In general, I think this is a scenario where you will continue to see enough choppiness that short-term traders will probably flock to it, but those of you who are more likely to be swing trading, you need to find a little bit more clarity before you put your money to work.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.