AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early gain

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 15.09.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but gave back gains rather quickly as the PPI numbers in the United States came out much hotter than anticipated. Because of this, the market looks like it continues to see a “fade to rally” attitude, therefore I don’t have the interest in trying to get long of the Aussie dollar anytime soon. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to Asia, and of course global growth. With that being the case, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the central banks favor a move higher in the Aussie, as the interest rate differential between the 2 economies remains fairly wide. Furthermore, the latest PPI figures only give more credence to the idea that the Federal Reserve will have to remain tight for longer.

Look at this chart, the 0.64 level becomes an obvious support level, while the 0.65 level above becomes an obvious resistance barrier. With that being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back-and-forth nonsense, and therefore I’m not overly interested in this trade for anything more than a short-term scalp. The machines continue to play ping-pong back and forth in a lot of markets right now, as traders try to convince central banks of the need to cut rates, while inflation tells a different story.

Unfortunately, this pair is going to be extraordinarily susceptible to this kind of push and pull story, and therefore I think the Aussie remains somewhat bound in the short term, but eventually will get an impulsive candlestick that you can follow. In the meantime, unless you are a short-term scalper, this is probably a currency pair that’s not going to offer much for you. Longer term traders are waiting to see whether or not we can break out of this range in one direction or the other. With this, I think you get a situation where the market is one that you have to be very cautious with.

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