AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gains After CPI

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 13.10.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but ran into a significant amount of resistance. The 50-Day EMA above is offering a significant resistance barrier from a technical analysis standpoint. Furthermore, there’s also a downtrend line that we see in that same general vicinity, so I think it’s only a matter of time before the sellers would’ve come back out anyway. The Aussie of course is highly sensitive to global growth, and with yet another conflict heating up, it’s difficult to imagine that there will be some type of effect globally.

Furthermore, the United States dollar is of course considered to be a safety currency, so we will have to pay close attention to that as well. After all, it does make a lot of sense of people would be looking for safety at the moment, and with the CPI number coming out a little hotter than anticipated during the session on Thursday, it also suggests that the Federal Reserve will have to stay “tighter for longer.” (Here’s a big hint: they keep telling you that exact thing.)

Looking at this chart, it does suggest that there is a lot of volatility ahead, and that’s not a huge surprise. If we were to take out the 50-Day EMA to the upside, it could open up the possibility of moving to the 0.65 level. On the other hand, we could very well drop down to the 0.63 level overall, so keep an eye on risk appetite and the US dollar in general. That being said, the Aussie dollar has been very choppy and noisy as of late, and I just don’t see any reason to think that changes anytime soon.

Ultimately, the Aussie will need to see global growth accelerating, although it does have the whole commodity aspect yet to think about as well. Expect a lot of choppiness, but at the end of the day, I still think this is a market that you’re looking for short-term rallies for selling opportunities as they occur. Looking at this chart, this is a scenario where you are going to have to remain very nimble.

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