AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Pulls Back From Big Figure

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 17.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to break above the 0.69 level during the trading session on Friday, but has pulled back a bit. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see the 0.69 level that offers resistance, and I do think that a pullback from here makes a certain amount of sense considering we had gotten a bit ahead of ourselves.

Earlier this week, we have seen inflation numbers in the United States drop a bit, so it does suggest that perhaps the Federal Reserve may slow down. That’s what the market is thinking at least, so we have seen the US dollar get pummeled against multiple currencies, not just the Australian dollar. The 0.69 level is an area that a lot of people have been paying close attention to multiple times in the past, so I think that the market is going to see this as an area where we had just gotten far ahead of ourselves. That being said, if we were to break above the 0.69 level, then it opens up the move to the 0.70 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract a lot of attention.

Underneath, if we were to break down below the 0.68 level, then we will more likely than not will test the 200-Day EMA, which sits right around the 0.6750 level. That is an area where we would see a lot of interest, as it defines the trend, but having said that, the market is likely to continue to see the flat 200-Day EMA as only being somewhat influential. If we break down below there, then we have the 50-Day EMA near the 0.67 handle, which is the top of a short-term consolidation area.

Looking at this chart, you can still make an argument for consolidation, but in the short term I think it has more to do with the idea of working off some froth, as we had shot straight up in the air too quickly. The US dollar in general is going to be what drives this pair and has very little to do with the Aussie itself.

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