AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Rallied Heading Into the Weekend

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 10.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, with the Non-Farm Payroll number coming in a little lighter than anticipated. Because of this, the US dollar has lost a bit of momentum, and therefore the market continues to see the choppiness be part of the scenario. The 0.66 level underneath is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen a lot of support previously.

Just above, the 50-Day EMA sits near the 0.67 level, which is an area that a lot of people will pay close attention to. If we were to break above the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that the market could open up the possibility of a move to the 200-Day EMA, closer to the 0.6750 level.

If we were to turn around a break down below the 0.66 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the 0.65 level. The 0.65 level is where we have seen support previously, so therefore I think it makes a certain amount of sense that “market memory” comes into the picture. If we break down below there, then the 0.64 level is an area that I think a lot of people pay close attention to due to the fact that it is a “measured move” from the previous consolidation area. Either way, we also have to pay close attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia, because even though they did not raise interest rates at the last meeting, they did suggest that it could be coming down the road.

Furthermore, we have to wonder whether or not the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy 2 or 3 times later this year, because that seems to be the overall consensus. In other words, I think we have a lot of back-and-forth noisy behavior in general. We could find ourselves trading in a range between 0.66 and 0.68 over the rest of summer, but we will have to wait and see whether or not we can get some type of bigger move with some type of momentum. Until then, I think you have to stick to a short-term range bound system.

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