AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Rallies Again

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 03.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, as we have broken above not only the 0.64 level, but a downtrend line, and of course the 50-Day EMA. This is a very bullish sign, although we still have a massive amount of resistance just above, and of course we also have the jobs number coming out on Friday.

This is a technically strong signal, but with all that noise above, we may be hanging around in a consolidation area. If we turn around and break down below the 0.64 level, then it’s possible that we could drop down to the lows yet again. Keep in mind that the Aussie dollar is highly sensitive to the risk appetite of traders around the world, and of course the commodity markets in general. That being said, the move on Wednesday and Thursday probably had more to do with the idea that the Federal Reserve might step back on tightening. That’s of course absolute nonsense, but the market likes to try to bully the Federal Reserve into doing what it wants.

Underneath, if we break down below the 0.64 level, I will be shorting again. The 0.65 level above is an area of significant resistance. After that, we also have the 200-Day EMA that comes into the picture, so be aware of the fact that it could be a trend-defining situation. We are in extremely oversold conditions overall, so maybe the Aussie isn’t the greatest currency to short against the greenback, but I still don’t like the idea of shorting the greenback in general.

With this in mind, I think you got a situation where you need to pay close attention to what’s going on here, because I do think you’ve got a situation where the volatility will probably pick up. I think at this point we might start to form another consolidation area, but a break above the 0.66 level, which ostensibly is the same thing as breaking the 200-Day EMA, is an extraordinarily bullish sign and I would have to rethink the entire situation. With this, I’m looking for an opportunity to start selling this market, but I would only do so with the idea of more consolidation trading than anything else.

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