AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Sits at Potential Support

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 19.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, but then pulled back rather significantly as we have tested the 0.68 level. The 0.68 level is an area that previously has shown itself to be both support and resistance, so it makes sense that we would see a lot of action. Ultimately, whether or not we can stay above here remains to be seen, but if we were to turn around and take out the top of the candlestick during the trading session on Tuesday, we can really start to take out toward the 0.69 level, where we have formed a little bit of a double top.

If we break down below the bottom of the last couple of daily candlesticks, then we could see this market reaching down to the 200-Day EMA which is near the 0.6750 level. Breaking down below that level then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 50-Day EMA. If we break down below there, then we go back down to the previous area of significant support at the 0.66 level.

All things being equal, I think that the Australian dollar is also going to have to pay close attention to the global economy, as it has been a bit of a noisy situation. However, with retail sales in the United States coming out lower than anticipated, people may start to bet on the idea of the inflationary situation in the United States cooling off, and that of course helps gold. This means that you don’t have to worry so much about the Federal Reserve squashing the demand for other currencies and especially commodity related currencies like the Australian dollar as interest rates start to fall in the United States. As traders begin to continue betting on the idea of a cooling Fed, then it’s very likely that the US dollar will continue to struggle in general. If we can break above the 0.69 level, then the Aussie is free to take off toward the 0.70 level, which would of course be a rather significant move going forward, and the sign of a bigger trend coming.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.