AUD/USD Forecast: CPI Miss Gives Bulls Breathing Room Before Powell’s Test

Aussie CPI Misses, But It’s Still Hot

AUD/USD is bending, not breaking. Australia’s inflation chart shows CPI rising to 4.6% in April from 3.7%, missing the 4.8% forecast but still sitting well above the RBA’s comfort zone. That’s the whole story in one line. Softer than feared. Still too hot.

Housing, transport, food and household services remain the pressure points. Transport is the one traders should watch closely because the Iran war and higher oil prices are feeding directly into fuel costs. That keeps the RBA in a bind. It may not need to panic, but it can’t sound relaxed either.

I’d call this a mildly bullish macro setup for the Aussie. The CPI miss trims the risk of an oversized hike, but sticky inflation keeps rate support under AUD/USD. Not perfect. Good enough.

Australia CPI rises to 4.6% but misses forecast

Australia inflation rate chart showing 4.6% actual CPI versus 4.8% forecast in April 2026

Source: TradingView

Fed and Tech Earnings Set the Next Move

The dollar is the spoiler. Reuters reported that the greenback caught a safe-haven bid ahead of today’s Fed decision, with traders focused on Powell’s inflation language and the economic impact of the Iran war. Oil above the $100–$110 area keeps the stagflation story alive, and that can support the dollar in short bursts.

But there’s another driver now. Tech risk appetite. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and other major U.S. tech names report after the US close, and AUD/USD has been trading more like a high-beta global risk proxy than a plain-vanilla rate differential trade. Strong AI capex guidance or cloud growth could support risk sentiment and keep the Aussie bid. Weak guidance would do the opposite.

For now, buyers still have the edge. But they need to clear 0.7185 to prove the next leg is starting.

Renko Holds the Bullish Line

The Renko uses a 0.001 brick size, and the message is still constructive. Price is consolidating near 0.7150 after pulling back from the recent 0.7221 high, but the structure has not broken.

The short-term Supertrend has flipped choppy, with resistance clustered around 0.7160–0.7183, while support sits near 0.7143 and 0.7114. That’s the current battleground. The bigger signal is the 500-SMA. AUD/USD remains well above it, which keeps the broader Renko trend tilted higher.

Momentum has cooled. That’s not bearish. RSI is below 50 but near it, while the Z-Score SMA has reset toward 0.58, suggesting the prior rally is no longer overheated. The market has taken a breath. Now it needs a trigger.

AUD/USD pauses, but the Renko trend stays intact

Australia inflation rate chart showing 4.6% actual CPI versus 4.8% forecast in April 2026

Source: TradingView

AUD/USD Outlook

Current Trend Direction: Bullish
Bias: Positive
Key Support Levels: 0.6833,0.7014
Key Resistance Levels: 0.7275, 0.74075

Medium-Term Path: AUD/USD still looks positioned to grind higher toward 0.7221, then 0.7300, provided buyers defend 0.7114 and the Renko structure remains above the 500-SMA. A clean break above 0.7185 would likely trigger the next upside push. If Powell sounds hawkish and the dollar catches a stronger bid, the pair may retest 0.7114, but the bullish bias stays intact while that level holds.