AUD/USD Forecast: Oil Shock and NFP Risk Put 0.6835 Support in Focus

AUD/USD remains in a corrective pullback as escalating geopolitical tension and higher energy prices pressure broader risk sentiment. With Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil trading near the $100 area, stagflation fears are limiting support for the Australian dollar. The bigger level to watch remains 0.6725, while the upcoming U.S. payrolls report could help shape the pair’s next directional move.

Why April Seasonality Still Matters for AUD/USD

April has historically been a softer month for AUD/USD. Over the 2016-2026 sample, the pair shows an average April return of -0.34%, with 4 positive months and 6 negative months.

AUD/USD Historical Seasonality and Performance Heat Map (2016-2026)

AUD/USD historical seasonality heat map shows April has been a relatively soft month on average. Source: TradingView

AUD/USD Fundamentals: Oil Shock, Stagflation Risk, and Trade Data

Right now, the market is focused less on domestic Australian drivers and more on global growth risk. Following President Trump’s White House address on Operation Epic Fury, traders have become increasingly sensitive to potential supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, helping lift Brent crude toward the $109 area.

Normally, a commodity shock can support Australia’s terms of trade. This time, however, the move looks more like a supply-side shock that could hurt global growth, encouraging investors to de-risk and rotate into the U.S. dollar.

Australia’s latest International Trade in Goods release showed the balance on goods at A$5.686 billion versus a forecast near A$2.6 billion, a materially stronger-than-expected result driven by firmer exports and softer imports. That supports the Aussie on paper, even if the broader risk-off tone is still limiting follow-through.

Australia’s Trade Surplus Beats Forecast

Australia’s monthly trade surplus rose to A$5.686 billion, well above the market forecast near A$2.6 billion. Source: TradingView

AUD/USD Weekly Chart Signals Pullback Toward 0.6725

On the weekly chart, AUD/USD failed to sustain momentum above 0.7180 and is now being rejected by the short Supertrend, which is acting as resistance near 0.7094. Price action continues to rotate lower toward the longer-term support base around 0.6725.

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

Upside momentum has stalled, with price action compressing and rotating lower from the 0.7094 resistance zone toward 0.6725 support.

AUD/USD weekly chart shows resistance near 0.7094 and longer-term support near 0.6725. Source: TradingView

AUD/USD Daily Chart Keeps 21-EMA Resistance in Focus

On the daily chart, AUD/USD ran into resistance near 0.71875 and has since entered a pullback phase. The pair is now trading below the 21-EMA, while RSI remains under 50, reinforcing the current bearish short-term structure.

RSI is not yet in oversold territory, which suggests there may still be room for additional downside before exhaustion sets in. For sentiment to improve materially, AUD/USD would likely need to reclaim the 21-EMA and turn that level back into support.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

The decisive move below the 21-EMA keeps near-term bearish pressure in place.

AUD/USD stays under pressure below the 21-EMA while RSI remains under 50. Source: TradingView

AUD/USD Renko Chart Shows 0.6834 as a Critical Breakdown Level

The Renko view still favors sellers. AUD/USD recently bounced from the 0.6834 area in a double-bottom setup, but the rebound lost momentum quickly and rolled over from a lower high at 0.6960, producing bearish continuation bricks.

At the same time, the Z-Score SMA near -1.54 points to steady downside momentum well below the mean. That keeps the focus on 0.6834 as the key near-term support. A clear break below that level would open the door to a deeper move toward 0.6725.

AUD/USD 0.001-Brick Renko Chart

Intraday seller control remains in place beneath the declining long-term SMA and Supertrend.

AUD/USD Renko chart keeps 0.6834 in focus as the key near-term support level. Source: TradingView

AUD/USD Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

AUD/USD remains under downside pressure as external geopolitical shocks and higher oil prices keep risk appetite fragile. Dip buying still looks early at this stage.

• Current Trend Neutral
• Bias Positive medium term, bearish short term
• Key Support Levels 0.6835, 0.6725
• Key Resistance Levels 0.7020, 0.7095, 0.71875

Medium-Term Path: AUD/USD is in a corrective phase, with 0.6835 acting as near-term support and 0.6725 as the more important medium-term floor. As long as price remains below the daily 21-EMA and under resistance at 0.7020 and 0.7095, rallies are more likely to look like temporary relief moves than the start of a sustained advance.