AUD/USD Forecast – The Australian Dollar Pulls Back Heading Toward the Fed Meeting

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 27.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, but gave back gains near the 0.68 level. At that point, we then fell to the 50-Day EMA, but keep in mind that the Federal Reserve comes out with an interest rate decision late in the session, so that obviously will cause a lot of volatility. We are seeing the US dollar move all over the place, as the British pound is gaining, but the Aussie in the New Zealand dollar or falling. The question now is whether or not we can find any sustainable trend?

When it comes to the Australian dollar it is likely to continue to chop back and forth, and therefore I don’t really have much of an opinion on this pair, other than if you are a short term range bound trader it might be your market. Breaking below the 50-Day EMA opens up the possibility of a move down to the 0.67 level, followed by the 0.66 level. In general, I think this is a scenario where the market has to be approached cautiously because quite frankly it does not look like we are going to see certainty in general. The inflation numbers out of the Australian economy were a bit of a mess overnight, and therefore we have seen the Aussie suffer as a consequence. That being said, we also have the Federal Reserve later in the day, so Jerome could send this pair all over the place.

When you look at this market, you can see just how noisy it’s been, and quite frankly I just don’t see any real hopes for that changing anytime soon. The 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA indicators are essentially flat, so that tells you just how lackluster this overall attitude is. The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the commodity markets, and of course global growth in general. With that being the case, I think you got a situation where if you are short term range bound trader you might be able to get away with going back and forth, but as far as a sustainable move, I just don’t see it happening at the moment.

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