AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 11, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly lower on Thursday after failing to follow-through to the upside following yesterday’s strong surge into its highest level since February 27. The Aussie continues to maintain a bullish tone over the short-term despite market expectations of a central bank rate cut later in the year.

Supporting the Australian Dollar this week has been a weaker U.S. Dollar, surging iron ore prices and optimism that a U.S.-China trade deal will be reached in a timely manner. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s neutral stance is also helping to underpin the currency.

At 10:02 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7158, down 0.0012 or -0.18%.

Daily Technical Analysis

Today, we’re going to take a longer-term view of the AUD/USD, or at least back to early December when the current trading range began.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Wednesday when buyers took out the previous top at .7168. The next main top comes in at .7207. On the downside, the nearest main bottom is .7052. A trade through this level will change the minor trend to down.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone is .7153 to .7079. The AUD/USD is trading on the strong side of this zone so it is now support.

The short-term range is .6764 to .7296. Its retracement zone at .7030 to .6967 is also support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .7167 and the Fibonacci level at .7153.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7167 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the AUD/USD to continue to climb with the next target the February 21 main top at .7207.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7167 will signal the presence of sellers, but a move through .7153 will likely trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next major upside target the uptrending Gann angle at .7114.

Basically, bullish investors are trying to sustain a rally over the major retracement zone at .7153 to .7079. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD.

As far as Thursday is concerned, look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over .7167 and for a bearish tone to develop on a sustained move under .7153.