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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Close Over .7290 Forms Closing Price Reversal Bottom

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Nov 12, 2021, 08:41 UTC

The direction of the AUD/USD into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to .7290.

AUD/USD

In this article:

The Australian Dollar is edging higher Friday after recovering from earlier weakness. Given the bearish fundamentals, the price action suggests profit-taking ahead of the weekend is taking place.

The Aussie is in a position to post another weekly loss as its U.S. counterpart benefited from the prospect of earlier rate hikes, while weakness on multiple price charts encouraged aggressive selling.

At 08:11 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7305, up 0.0015 or +0.20%.

The U.S. Dollar has been bolstered this week by speculation the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates sooner than expected because of a spike in consumer inflation in October. Additionally, while Fed officials have sounded increasingly worried that inflation might prove long lasting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is sticking to its dovish outlook for rates.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at .7277 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .7431 will change the main trend to up.

The AUD/USD is also down 11 sessions from its October 28 main top. This puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This won’t change the trend, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The main range is .7170 to .7556. The AUD/USD is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at .7363 to .7318, making it resistance.

The short-term range is .7556 to .7277. Its 50% level at .7417 is also potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to .7290.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7290 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at .7277 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger with potential downside targets coming in at .7226 and .7170.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7290 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into .7318.

Sellers could come in on the first test of .7318. Overcoming it, however, could extend the rally into .7363.

A close over .7290 will form a daily closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed next week, it could trigger a 2 to 3 day retracement with .7417 the next potential upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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