AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Closed on Weak Side of Minor Pivot at .7614

The Australian Dollar finished slightly lower on Wednesday after giving back its early gains. The risk- sensitive currency fell despite a strong performance in the U.S. stock market, which could have been a reflection on the thin trade ahead of the long Easter weekend. Meanwhile, investors seemed to shrug-off potentially bullish PMI data from China, while reacting to robust U.S. private sector jobs data.

On Wednesday, the AUD/USD settled at .7595, down 0.0002 or -0.03%.

Australia’s fastest home-price gains in more than three decades last month also point to some of the side effects of ultra-easy monetary policy, possibly putting pressure on central banks to curtail support sooner than they had planned.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the nearest main top at .7849 will change the main trend to up. A move through .7585 will make .7664 a new main top, dropping down the change in trend level. A move through the last swing bottom at .7563 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7664 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .7563 to .7664. The Aussie closed on the weak side of its pivot at .7614, putting it in a potentially bearish position.

The short-term range is .7849 to .7563. If the minor trend changes to up then its 50% level at .7706 will become the next upside objective.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to .7614.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7613 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is .7563. Taking out this level will reaffirm the downtrend and could trigger the start of an acceleration into the December 21, 2020 main bottom at .7462.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7614 will signal the return of buyers. The first upside target is .7664. Taking out this level will shift momentum to the upside with .7706 the next likely upside target.

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