AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Could Be Trying to Form Closing Price Reversal Bottom

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly lower early Friday. The currency is showing little response to President Trump’s criticism of Fed monetary policy on Thursday that seems to have rattled a few investors. The focus for Aussie traders remains on the Chinese yuan which is up slightly today after hitting a one-year low the previous session.

At 0410 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7354, down 0.0023 or -0.02%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7310 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7443.

Today’s price action suggests counter-trend buyers may have come in at .7318 earlier today to defend the main bottom at .7310. A higher close will form the second closing price reversal bottom this week. This will also be an indication that investors don’t want to see the AUD/USD take out .7310. I can see why on the chart. The next major support under this level is the December 23, 2016 main bottom at .7159.

The short-term range is .7310 to .7484. Its 50% level or pivot at .7397 is controlling the short-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The main range is .7677 to .7310. If the main trend changes to up then its retracement zone at .7494 to .7537 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Thursday’s close at .7357.

A sustained move under .7357 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside pressure then look for the selling to extend into the main bottom at .7310.

Taking out .7310 will put the AUD/USD in a weak position. This could fuel an acceleration to the downside with .7159 the next major target.

A sustained move over .7357 will signal the presence of buyers. This will put the AUD/USD in a position to form a daily closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed on Monday, this could lead to a 2 to 3 day rally.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7357 all session. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers or sellers are in control.