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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – February 15, 2019 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 15, 2019, 05:43 UTC

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7079 and the uptrending Gann angle at .7074.

AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar is under pressure on Friday in reaction to more economic weakness in China. This comes on the heels of a steep decline the previous session. Today’s selling pressure is being fueled by lower-than-expected inflation data in China. The country’s official Consumer Price Index rose by 1.7% on the year, below the 1.9% estimate. Producer prices added jut 0.1%, worse than the 0.3% forecast. The Aussie fell in response to the news because it often acts as a proxy to China’s economy since Australia is the world’s second-largest economy’s biggest trading partner.

At 05:22 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7090, down 0.0015 or -0.25%.

AUD/USD
Daily AUD/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted slightly to the upside on February 12 following the formation of a closing price reversal bottom and the subsequent confirmation.

A trade through .7053 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7296.

The minor trend is up. It turned up a couple of days ago when buyers took out the minor top at .7108. This move also shifted momentum to the upside. A trade through .7136 will reaffirm the minor trend. A move through .7053 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The major retracement zone at .7079 to .7154 is controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD. The Forex pair is currently trading inside this zone.

The main range is .6764 to .7296. If the selling pressure continues then its retracement zone at .7030 to .6967 will become the primary downside target.

The short-term range is .7296 to .7053. Its retracement zone at .7175 to .7203 is the primary upside target.

AUD/USD
Daily AUD/USD (Close-Up)

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7079 and the uptrending Gann angle at .7074.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7079 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential surge into the minor top at .7136, followed by the major Fibonacci level at .7154.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7074 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the minor bottom at .7053. This is followed by the main 50% level at .7030. This is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the main Fibonacci level at .6967 the next likely downside target.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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