AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – February 18, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is grinding higher early Monday on low volume due to a U.S. bank holiday. The currency is being primarily supported by optimism that U.S.-China trade talks will lead to a deal before the March 1 deadline. Last week’s negotiations in Beijing ended with little progress although President Trump sounded a little more optimistic over the week-end. The high level trade talks now move to Washington later this week.

At 07:30 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7154, up 0.0016 or +0.23%.

Volume and volatility are also expected to be light today ahead of the release of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting minutes at 00:30 GMT on Tuesday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of a closing price reversal bottom at .7053 on February 12.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through .7296. A move through .7053 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This reaffirms the shift in momentum. A trade through .7073 will change the minor trend to down.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone at .7079 to .7153 is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair. The AUD/USD is currently testing the upper or Fibonacci level of this zone at .7153.

The short-term range is .7296 to .7053. Its retracement zone at .7175 to .7203 is the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7153.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7153 will indicate the presence of buyers. However, this rally is likely to stall on a test of the short-term retracement zone at .7175 to .7203.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7153 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move is able to create enough downside momentum then look for a possible break into the main 50% level at .7079.