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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading nearly flat early Monday on light volume due to the U.S. bank holiday. Traders are trying to recover some of Friday’s steep loss that was fueled by rise in the U.S. Dollar as riskier currencies fell after President-elect Joe Biden rolled out a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan that was offset by fresh U.S.-China tensions and a rise in COVID-19 infections in China.

At 02:25 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7693, down 0.0010 or -0.13%.

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There was no economic data out of Australia, but traders are showing little reaction to fresh numbers out of China. China’s economic recovery beat analyst expectations in the fourth quarter, expanding 6.5% from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7666 will change the main trend to down. Taking out .7643 will reaffirm the downtrend.

Taking out .7805 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through .7820 will reaffirm the rally.

The minor range is .7820 to .7666. Its 50% level or pivot at .7743 is potential resistance.

The short-term range is .7339 to .7820. If the main trend changes to down then its 50% level at .7579 will become the next downside target.

The main support is the retracement zone at .7405 to .7308.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Early in the trading session on Monday we’re looking for a downside bias as long as the AUD/USD stays below the pivot at .7743. If this can generate enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into .7666 then .7643. The latter is the last potential support before the short-term 50% level at .7579.

The 50% level at .7579 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Overtaking .7743 will signal the presence of buyers. If the buying increases then look for a move into the pair of main tops at .7805 and .7820.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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