AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – November 19, 2018 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Monday after failing to follow-through to the upside, following Friday’s strong surge. Profit-taking and position-squaring ahead of the release of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes are helping to generate the downside pressure. Lingering concerns over U.S.-China trade relations are also weighing on prices.

At 1200 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7296, down 0.0035 or -0.48%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7338 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .7164.

The current inside move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

The main retracement zone is .7252 to .7307. The AUD/USD started the session on the strong side of this zone, helping to add to its upside bias. However, it is now trading inside this zone, suggesting a slight loss of upside momentum.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at .7307.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7307 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a drive into Friday’s high at .7338, followed closely by an uptrending Gann angle at .7340.

Overtaking .7340 will put the AUD/USD in a bullish position with targets coming in at .7363 and .7382.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7307 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential plunge into the 50% level at .7252.

We could see below average volume today because it is a U.S. holiday-shortened week. Several of the major players may decide to sit this one out. Furthermore, the RBA minutes are coming out early Tuesday and no one really wants to step in front of this news.