AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Rangebound Between .6801 to .6754 Ahead of RBA Decision

The Australian Dollar is trading higher on Monday, buoyed by better-than-expected economic data out of China overnight. China’s November PMI’s were released over the weekend, and all three exceeded expectations.

A private survey on Monday showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November as the Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.8.

At 09:38 GMT, the AUD/USD is at .6783, up 0.0024 or +0.36%.

Caixin and IHS Markit said in a joint press release that the pace of improvement was the strongest since December 2016. The index was expected to have fallen to 51.4 in November from 51.7 in October, according to economists polled by Reuters. .

China’s official PMI was 50.2 in November, up from 49.3 in October to hit its highest level since March, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday.

 Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6754 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .6930.

The main range is .6671 to .6930. Its retracement zone at .6801 to .6770 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6783, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6779.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6779 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the 50% level at .6801. Overcoming this level could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at .6820. Sellers are likely to come in on a test of this angle.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6779 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the Fibonacci level at .6770. If this fails then look for a retest of the main bottom at .6754. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target a support cluster at .6725 to .6724.