AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Testing Retracement Zone Resistance at .7769 to .7826

The Australian Dollar is edging lower on Tuesday as traders squared positions ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting and Wednesday’s release of the latest inflation data from Australia.

On Monday, the Aussie jumped against the U.S. Dollar, underpinned by higher iron ore prices and a weaker greenback amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will shun talk of tapering bond purchases at its policy meeting.

At 08:01 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7782, down 0.0021 or -0.27%.

First-quarter consumer price data in Australia on Wednesday is expected to show inflation still undershooting the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) 2-3% target despite hefty monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7816 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .7691.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. The AUD/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at .7769 to .7826. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is .7532 to .7816. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at .7674 to .7640 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .7769.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7770 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential surge into .7816.

Taking out .7816 will reaffirm the uptrend with the main Fibonacci level at .7826 the next target, followed by another main top at .7849. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. The daily chart shows there is plenty of room to the upside over .7849 with .8007 the next potential upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7769 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a minor pivot at .7753. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at .7691, followed by the short-term retracement zone at .7674 to .7640.

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