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Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, June 21, 2019

As your analysts, I can’t possibly tell you how bored I am talking about the US/China trade war. However, that is without a doubt the story when it comes to the Australian dollar. Granted, we got a bit of a boost from the Federal Reserve softening its stance, so at this point the US dollar selling off makes quite a bit of sense. However, the Australian dollar is highly levered to the Chinese economy, and as long as we have problems over there due to the trade war, the Aussie is going to be somewhat limited as to where it can go.

AUD/USD Video 21.06.19

To the upside I see the 0.70 level as massive resistance, so therefore I would be a bit surprised to see a breakout above that level. If we can break the 0.7060 level, then the market should continue to go much higher. However, what I expect to see is that the market will go closer to that level and then roll over at the previously mentioned 0.70 region. That doesn’t mean that we are going to break down drastically, just that we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves as we have to worry about whether or not the Americans and the Chinese can get together at the G 20 meeting and make something happen, or at least show willingness to continue. At this point, it seems very unlikely to produce anything major, so I think we continue to consolidate as we have been doing in the blue box.

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