AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Bounces From Lows

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday after forming a somewhat neutral candlestick on Thursday. At this point, we are trying to hang onto the 0.76 level, which is a major support level going back several months. If we break down below that level, it would of course be a very negative sign for the Australian dollar, and at this point I think this probably comes down to the US dollar more than anything else.

AUD/USD Video 29.03.21

The Australian dollar is of course very sensitive to the commodity markets, which have seen a little bit of selling as of late. However, copper did rally a bit early in the session so that could be helping. Keep an eye on the 10 year note in the United States, because of the yield continues to rally the way it has, that should continue to favor the US dollar in general. Ultimately, this is a market that has seen quite a bit of selling as of late, and it should also be noted that we had formed a shooting star for the month of February, which of course suggests that there is quite a few sellers above.

That being said, if we break down below the lows of the Thursday session, then the market is likely to go down towards the 200 day EMA, possibly as low as the 0.71 handle. While I recognize that it is going to be noisy in general, the reality is that even if we were to pull back to the 0.71 handle, in the scheme of what we have seen over the last several months, it would be nothing but a healthy pullback.

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