Gold Price Forecast – The Final Washout Is Now in Progress

Prices have reached the target zones we previously outlined for members, and we believe conditions are developing for a potential bottom. However, if gold breaks decisively below $3,900, the decline could extend towards the $3,500 area.

The S&P 500 also faces the risk of a correction after closing the post-Iran peace gap around 7,400. A break below the June low would strengthen the case for a secondary pullback toward the 200-day moving average, potentially aligning with a broader risk-off environment that could place additional downward pressure on precious metals.

Gold Cycle Indicator

The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 37. This is the most oversold gold has been since October 2023.

US Dollar

The dollar is comfortably above the 101 level, and this appears to be a bullish breakout with potential to target the 103 to 105. To invalidate this structure, it would need to fall back below 101 in the coming days. Otherwise, the trend is pointing higher, which could put downside pressure on metals.

Gold

The dollar is breaking higher, likely setting the stage for one final decline into our mid-year target zone. I believe prices are in the process of forming a bottom, and we could still see a test of — or a brief dip below — the $4,000 level.

It would take a sustained move below $3,900 to trigger the alternate downside scenario, which targets the $3,500 area. For now, however, my expectation remains that a meaningful bottom will form between now and mid-July.

Silver

Silver is moving deeper into our target zone, and I believe the correction that began in January is now roughly 90% complete. If prices fail to hold support near $55.00, the deepest decline I would expect is a retest of the breakout area around $50.00.

In the meantime, I’m closely monitoring the market for signs of a bottoming process. A successful hold within this target zone could set the stage for the next leg higher.

Platinum

Platinum made a slightly lower low, and prices may soon fill the price gap just below $1,600. If weakness persists, I see strong support emerging near $1,500, which should hold as the final support for this correction.

GDX

Mining stocks have moved decisively into our target zone, successfully closing the gap near $80.00. From here, gold will likely need to hold support around $4,000 to help maintain a floor near $72.00 in GDX. As long as that support remains intact, the broader bottoming process should continue to unfold.

GDXJ

Junior miners have entered our target zone, and I continue to expect a meaningful bottom to form between now and mid-July. As prices work through this support area, I will be watching closely for signs of stabilization and a potential trend reversal.

SILJ

Silver juniors have dipped into the upper boundary of our target zone, suggesting that the correction which began in January is nearing completion. While a bit more downside remains possible, I continue to expect a meaningful bottom to form in the mid-to-low $20s.

S&P 500

Stocks closed below the 7,394 price gap, a development that suggests trend exhaustion and opens the door to a secondary decline. A decisive close below the June low of 7,237 would likely trigger a move back towards the 200-day moving average.

A sudden risk-off event could also pressure precious metals and mining stocks, potentially pushing them below the lower boundaries of their current target zones. If that occurs, I may need to adjust those target boxes in July to reflect the changing market environment.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin remains at risk of another sharp decline if prices fall below the $59,000 level in the coming days. Meanwhile, Tether’s market cap closed below its 200-day moving average, a signal that has often coincided with the third and final phase of a bear market.

My base case remains a decline toward the $40,000 area, although a deeper move closer to $33,000 between now and October cannot be ruled out.

Conclusion

The correction in precious metals that began in January is approximately 90% complete, and prices are deep into our target zones. I see the potential for a turning point around month-end.

I believe we are in the final capitulation phase of an intermediate cycle low, a period when bearish sentiment is likely to peak. Don’t be fooled by the negativity—precious metals remain in major bull markets; I expect gold to exceed $10,000 and see silver north of $300 by 2030.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.