Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Weak Dollar Supports Rebound Ahead of US CPI

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) started the week with slight losses after the strong rally last week. Spot gold slipped to $4,320, while silver fell to $63.35. Investors picked up some profits recently. But the US dollar was holding steady at a 2-month low. Markets also cut the likelihood of an interest rate hike in September from 55% to about 44%. Both metals continue to be supported by these factors.

Investors are now looking for the US CPI data on Wednesday and PPI data on Thursday. The ease in inflation may ease the expectations of rate hike that may further support the gold and silver prices. But the oil prices rose amid ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said it had an agreement in the process with Oman but the waterway remains restricted. Rising oil prices could lead to inflation concerns and make precious metals more volatile.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,400 Breakout Could Open Path to $4,900

XAUUSD Breaks Above 50-Day SMA

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price broke out of the wedge formation at the $4,120-$4,150 level on August 5, 2026. After the break, prices rallied to mark a high of $4,371 on Friday. This rebound from the bottom has broken the bullish structure and also the 50-day SMA and points toward the 200-day SMA in the $4,500 region.

Moreover, the RSI remains above the midline, which indicates the possibility of upside momentum in the gold market in the short term.

This breakout in the gold price is also observed on the short term time frame, where the price has approached the resistance at around the $4,350-$4,400 level. A clear break above $4,400 will likely push prices toward the resistance of the broadening wedge pattern in the $4,900-$5,000 region. Overall, the rebound from the bottom is constructive and indicates positive price action in the short term.

Gold Needs a Break Above $4,370 to Extend Short-Term Rally

The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows a clear break above $4,280 and a move toward the resistance at $4,370 as discussed previously. A break above $4,370 is required to push prices further to the upside. But a break below $4,120 will invalidate this rebound and indicate further downside before the next move.

Silver Price Forecast: Break Above $64 Could Target $72 and $89

XAGUSD Breaks Above 50-Day SMA

The daily chart for spot silver shows that the price rebounded from the $55 region toward the upper region of the primary support zone at $64. However, the price has broken the 50-day SMA, which increases the possibility of an upside breakout above the $64 area.

A break above $64 will push the silver price toward the pivotal level of $72 where the next move in silver will be decided. A break above $72 will open the door to the $89 region.

It is interesting to note that the $72 region in spot silver also intersects with the 200-day SMA, which makes this region critical for traders. The RSI remains above the mid-level and continues to move higher, which indicates positive momentum in the spot silver market.

XAGUSD Needs a Break Above $70-$72 to Target $90

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows that prices have been consolidating within the broadening wedge pattern. The price rebounded from the $55 region, broke above the $62 area and moved toward the next resistance at $70.

Overall, the immediate resistance in spot silver remains the $70 region. A break above the $70-$72 region will open the door for further upside toward the $90 area. On the other hand, a break below $60 will indicate another move toward the $55 area.

What Is Next for Gold and Silver Prices?

Gold and silver prices remain supported by the weak US dollar and lower expectations of September rate hike. However, the upcoming US inflation data and rising oil prices may increase market volatility. Gold needs to break above $4,370-$4,400 to target $4,500 and then $4,900. A break below $4,120 would weaken the rebound. Silver must clear $64 and then $70-$72 to open the way toward $90. But a break below $60 could push the price back toward $55. Overall, the short term outlook is improving, but both metals must break their key resistance levels to confirm further gains.

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