The Week Ahead: CPI and Earnings Test the Stock Market Rally Near Record Highs

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished last week sharply higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 54,036.93, up 2.96% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,690.62, up 5.19%, while the S&P 500 ended at 7,757.64, up 3.58%.

Inflation returns to center stage after July payrolls declined by 23,000 and wage growth slowed to its weakest pace in nearly five years. The data reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, leaving CPI and PPI as policy tests.

Second-quarter earnings growth is tracking near 48% with more than 85% of S&P 500 companies reporting, compared with a 24% estimate at the season’s start. Growth remains near 29% excluding investment-related gains at Alphabet and Amazon, while cloud revenue and AI demand have supported technology shares.

Primary catalysts are CPI, PPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment, Federal Reserve speakers and earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco Systems and Applied Materials.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Aug. 10

Before the Open

• Barrick Mining (B), est. $0.83
• Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), est. $3.30
• Monday.com (MNDY), est. $1.11

Economic Releases

• Tentative, Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations, prior 3.7%

After the Close

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), est. -$0.32
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), est. -$0.05
• Rocket Lab USA (RKLB), est. -$0.06

Tuesday, Aug. 11

Before the Open

• Cardinal Health (CAH), est. $2.42
• Sea Limited (SE), est. $0.82
• Venture Global (VG), est. $0.48

Economic Releases

• 10:00 GMT, NFIB Small Business Index, forecast 97.8 (prior 97.4)
• 12:15 GMT, ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 15.0K
• 14:00 GMT, Existing Home Sales, forecast 4.05M (prior 4.09M)
• 20:30 GMT, API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close

• CoreWeave (CRWV), est. -$1.42. Revenue is expected to rise 110.7% to $2.56 billion, while the loss widens from $0.60. Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating and $150 target despite overbuild and capacity-delay concerns.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI), est. $0.92

Wednesday, Aug. 12

Before the Open

• Amcor (AMCR), est. -$0.03
• Brinker (EAT), est. $3.09
• Nebius Group (NBIS), est. -$0.67

Economic Releases

• 12:30 GMT, Core CPI m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.0%)
• 12:30 GMT, Core CPI y/y, forecast 2.5% (prior 2.6%)
• 12:30 GMT, CPI m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior -0.4%)
• 12:30 GMT, CPI y/y, forecast 3.4% (prior 3.5%)
• 14:30 GMT, Crude Oil Inventories, prior 2.5M
• 17:01 GMT, 10-y Bond Auction, prior 4.58|2.6
• 18:00 GMT, Federal Budget Balance, forecast -294.6B (prior -120.3B)

After the Close

• Cisco Systems (CSCO), est. $1.17. Revenue is expected at $16.83 billion, up 14.7% year over year, with EPS up 18.2%. UBS expects AI infrastructure demand to support Networking revenue and Product orders, with gross margin near 66%.
• Cerebras Systems (CBRS), est. -$0.17

Thursday, Aug. 13

Before the Open

• Birkenstock Holding (BIRK), est. $0.76
• JD.com (JD), est. $5.63
• Tapestry (TPR), est. $1.27

Economic Releases

• 12:30 GMT, Core PPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
• 12:30 GMT, PPI m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior -0.3%)
• 12:30 GMT, Unemployment Claims, forecast 202K (prior 199K)
• Tentative, Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.44%
• 14:30 GMT, Natural Gas Storage, prior 33B
• 17:01 GMT, 30-y Bond Auction, prior 5.06|2.4

After the Close

• Applied Materials (AMAT), est. $3.39. Revenue is forecast at $9.01 billion, up 23.4% year over year, with EPS up 36.7%. Stifel expects 13%-plus quarterly revenue growth and sees its 4%-plus fourth-quarter estimate as conservative as Singapore output increases.

Friday, Aug. 14

Before the Open

• Sinda (SIND), est. -$0.06
• Suncrete (RMIX), est. -$0.04

Economic Releases

• 12:30 GMT, Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior -0.2%)
• 12:30 GMT, Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
• 14:00 GMT, Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast 54.4 (prior 55.2)
• 14:00 GMT, Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations, prior 4.2%
• 14:00 GMT, Business Inventories m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.3%)

After the Close

No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Thursday, Aug. 13

• Beth Hammack (FOMC Member), 12:15 GMT
• Thomas Barkin (FOMC Member), 12:40 GMT

Traders will monitor the remarks for any response to the weaker July employment report and the CPI and PPI readings as markets reassess rate-increase risk.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 54,036.93 (+2.96%), support at 51,542.06, the 52-week SMA at 48,610.48, 45,057.28, resistance at 54,744.33.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq: 26,690.62 (+5.19%), support at 24,425.34, 23,940.23, the 52-week SMA at 23,692.89, 23,173.24, 20,987.12, 20,690.25, 19,523.19, resistance at 27,190.21.

Weekly S&P 500 Index

S&P 500: 7,757.64 (+3.58%), support at 7,313.92, 7,237.85, the 52-week SMA at 6,956.60, 6,316.91, resistance at 7,793.68.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact long-term uptrend.

Outlook

CPI and PPI are the week’s main economic tests, followed by retail sales and consumer sentiment. CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials headline earnings, while Hammack and Barkin provide the scheduled Federal Reserve commentary.

The major indices enter the week above rising 52-week SMAs and near resistance. Inflation readings supporting a steady Fed outlook and earnings guidance maintaining confidence in AI spending would favor continuation of the current trend. Unfavorable inflation data or weaker guidance would place support under pressure.