Silver Is Taking the Dollar Trade Harder Than Gold
Silver reached $67.55 Tuesday and gave back more than $2 by Wednesday morning. Gold is down less than 1%. Silver is down 2.88%. The dollar is at a new recovery high. The two-year yield reached 4.788%. Six sessions of lower crude have not changed the rate trade for either metal and silver is paying the heavier price.
At 09:50 GMT, Spot Silver is trading $65.12, down $1.93 or -2.88%. The session high is $67.52 and the low is $65.07.
The Dollar Took Back Tuesday’s Reversal and Kept Going
The Dollar Index cleared 100.561 Tuesday, reached 100.667, and gave it back after the Iran headline knocked crude lower. Silver bounced on that reversal. Wednesday morning the DXY opened at 100.560, pushed through to 100.862, and is holding near 100.826. The level that failed Tuesday is acting as support.
The move is not coming from a fresh oil shock. Crude is down for a sixth session. The dollar is moving on the rate trade underneath it. The Fed raised last week. Warsh left the door open. Musalem, Goolsbee, and Collins have all reinforced the inflation case this week. Tuesday’s dollar reversal looked like it might give silver breathing room. Wednesday took that away before European desks finished their first cup of coffee.
The next resistance on the DXY is the 101.327 to 101.640 range with the main high at 101.800 above. Six sessions of cheaper crude and the dollar is making new recovery highs. Silver buyers expected falling oil to knock the dollar off its run. It has not touched it.
The Two-Year Yield Is the Cleaner Signal
The 10-year gets the attention after reaching 5.041% last week. The two-year is telling the more direct story for silver Wednesday.
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At 09:11 GMT, the two-year yield is trading 4.773%, up 0.026 percentage points or 0.55%. It reached 4.788% earlier. The yield was near 4.60% before the Fed raised last week. It has been climbing since.
The Fed moved the policy rate to 3.75%-4.00%. The two-year responded by pricing more tightening ahead, not less. That is the front end of the curve taking the Fed at its word. The 10-year is sitting at 4.961%, holding above 4.920% after two tests. Both ends of the curve are saying the same thing. The Fed has not blinked. The rate market has not either.
Oil Fell for Six Sessions and Silver Did Not Notice
Crude is lower on reports of possible U.S.-Iran progress and the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline. Brent is still near $100. WTI is still above $90. The market removed some of the supply premium. It has not returned to a normal energy market.
Fed officials raised rates last week with oil higher and are still talking about services inflation, strong demand, and data center construction. The Bank of Japan and ECB have both tightened recently. Silver is trading against three major central banks pointed in the same direction and six days of cheaper crude have not moved that needle.
The UNGA meetings in New York are the headline risk on the crude side. A real step toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil lower. A denial or a fresh threat reverses six days of selling. The oil story can shift the session. The rate story is running the week.
SLV Lost Money While GLD Took It In
The iShares Silver Trust recorded net outflows of $182.85 million over the past week after roughly $29 million in redemptions in the first week of September. GLD took in more than $1.35 billion over the same period. Gold has fund flows catching breaks. Silver does not.
Equiti analysts still expect a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026. The physical story has not gone away. The ETF money has. Silver reached $89.38 in May, fell to $54.78 in July, recovered to $71.18 in August, and is now giving back $2 on a Wednesday morning. The longer-term buyers are still underneath the market. The short-term money is leaving.
Daily Spot Silver Technical Analysis
Spot silver is lower early Wednesday. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $68.33 will change the main trend to up. A move through $62.31 will reaffirm the downtrend.
Silver reached $67.55 Tuesday and turned lower. The move stopped below the $67.79 retracement level and below the $68.33 main top. Sellers showed up before the market could change the trend.
The current break is testing the $65.45 to $65.32 area. A sustained move under that zone could send silver into the 50-day moving average at $63.45. The $62.98 to $61.04 support zone sits below the moving average along with the $62.31 main bottom.
What to Watch
The Dollar Index is the first screen. It took back 100.561 after failing there Tuesday. Silver stays under pressure as long as that level holds. The two-year pushing toward 4.788% after last week’s hike is the rate market pricing a more restrictive path. The 10-year above 4.920% keeps the same pressure from the long end.
The UNGA headlines can still move crude. A real step toward Hormuz reopening keeps energy prices lower. A reversal in the diplomacy restores the premium. The oil story is the session-to-session swing. The dollar and yields are running the trade this week and neither one has cracked.
Silver is trading below the $65.45 to $65.32 area with the 50-day below at $63.45. The rally to $67.55 failed before it could threaten the main top. SLV is losing money while GLD takes it in. The swing chart is down and the dollar, the two-year, and the 10-year are all confirming the bearish lean.
Reclaiming $66.75 and then $67.79 weakens that case. A break through the 50-day strengthens it. Until the dollar and yields give ground, sellers own the trade and buyers need to hold the average or $62.31 comes back into focus.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
