AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Grind Lower

The Australian dollar has fallen significantly during the trading session on Wednesday again, to break down below the 0.73 handle. This is yet another large number that we have broken through, so therefore it looks as if the Aussie dollar is ready to continue to go much lower. All things been equal, this is a market that I think continues to grind lower to go looking towards the uptrend line, but if we break down below there, then the Aussie will almost certainly plunge. I do think that there are a certain amount of buyers underneath to keep this market afloat, but in the short term I think we probably still continue to see downward dips.

AUD/USD Video 18.11.21

The Aussie of course is highly levered to China and commodities in general, so you need to keep an eye on both of those things at the same time. Ultimately, the Australian dollar also has to deal with the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated its dovishness, while the Federal Reserve is looking to taper its bond buying purchases. In other words, the United States is tightening while the Australians remain very loose, thereby making the US dollar quite a bit more attractive in the eyes of Forex traders.

If we were to break above the 50 day EMA, then I would probably sit on the sidelines and wait to see whether or not we can take out the 0.76 level, which for me is the gateway to much higher pricing and a major uptrend. We do not have that at the moment, so I still believe that it is only a matter of time before sellers come back.

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