AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar continues to hover

At this point, I think it literally comes down to what comes out of that meeting, be it good or bad. If it’s good, then the Australian dollar should rally based upon the idea that the tariffs might be lifted against the Chinese, boosting global trade and growth, which of course helps a commodity currency like the Australian dollar. Beyond that, Australia is highly levered to the Chinese economy as it is essentially the “general store” to the manufacturing and construction sectors in that country. That should immediately send the Australian dollar higher, perhaps looking towards the 0.75 handle which I see as rather resistive. A break above that level would confirm in my mind a trend change longer term.

AUD/USD Video 03.12.18

On the other hand, if we get some type of negativity of the meeting, then I think the Australian dollar will fall rather quickly. At that point, I would anticipate a move down to at least the lows of the week, if not back down to the 0.70 level again. We are trying to form a bit of a bottoming pattern, but we need some good news to justify going higher from here in my estimation. Expect a lot of choppiness, and quite frankly I think you will know almost immediately and the open Monday as to whether or not you should be long or short of this pair, at least for the next few days.