AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Recover

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit after initially gapping lower on Monday, but it still looks as if there is a significant amount of resistance just above that we will have to pay close attention to. The 50-Day EMA sits right around the crucial 0.65 level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The market did see a massive move higher on Friday, but quite frankly there are so many different people out there trying to find some type of “risk on scenario”, that it’s probably worth noting that there are several Federal Reserve speakers coming this week.

They will almost certainly reiterate the need to fight inflation, and that of course means that we would be talking about a tight monetary policy. As long as that’s going to be the case, the US dollar will certainly have plenty of strength over the longer term. Yes, occasionally there will be the pop higher on some of these other currencies like you see on the chart, but ultimately these are short-term moves, and I don’t necessarily think that they have any follow through.

Even if we did get a bit of follow-through, then we could go to the 0.67 level, an area that previously had been supported. That is a major level on longer-term charts, and it is almost certainly going to try to function as a ceiling for the bigger market moves in general. If we were to break above there, then it’s possible that you could see a bit of a bigger move and perhaps even a trend change. However, with the Federal Reserve looking to tighten going forward, and the Reserve Bank of Australia having already reduced its rate hikes size, that seems like a bit of a stretch.

AUD/USD Price Forecast Video for 08.11.22

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