AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Finding Support Again

Australian dollar traders eventually found support near the 0.6825 handle during the day on Friday after initially selling off but looking at this chart you can see that we are a bit stretched. The question now is whether or not we can hold this bounce? It is probably a bit early to call this “safe” to start jumping in, but obviously the trend is up recently, so we have to think about the likelihood of a retest higher. However, the candlestick from Thursday was very brutal, so I would be cautious about jumping into the market right away. In fact, it is very possible that we will see sellers again.

AUD/USD Video 15.06.20

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Friday, then it is likely that we will continue lower and towards the 0.6675 level, but it should be noted that a lot of what we have seen recently has been due to the Federal Reserve going everything it can to crush the US dollar. Looking at this chart, there does seem to be a lot of resistance just above the 0.70 level, and I think it extends to the 0.71 handle.

If the market were to break above there then it becomes a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of scenario, something that I am increasingly warming up to, but I do recognize that it is going to take an extraordinary effort to make that happen. If it does though, I would not only start buying the Australian dollar, but I would be holding a core position. To the other side, a break down below the candlestick for the Friday session more than likely we at least go down to the 200 day EMA if not start a new spate of selling.

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