NZD/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY Forecasts – US Dollar Vying to Rally on Thursday

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar initially tried to rally on Thursday but then turned around to show signs of exhaustion near the 0.58 level. The 0.58 level is an area that we can continue to see noise at, as it was the support level and resistance couple of times for this market in the past.

The shape of the candlestick is starting to look pretty negative, so I think if we break down below the Thursday candlestick, that opens up a move down to 0.57. Breaking the Wednesday candlestick is probably what really starts to accelerate things. Keep in mind, though, Friday is Juneteenth in the United States, so liquidity could be an issue. Certainly, looks like we’re favoring the dollar in the US, though.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally but gave back gains, and it looks like it is trying to work its way down to the 0.6950 level. And that general vicinity you’re starting to talk about is possibly challenging the 200-day EMA. Rallies at this point, I think, will run into trouble near the 50-day EMA above.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar is at a fresh high for the year against the Japanese yen, and now we are going to have to see whether or not the Bank of Japan intervenes at this point. It doesn’t look like they’re going to, at least not yet. And at this juncture, I would also point out that short-term pullbacks are definitely going to be thought of as buying opportunities even if the Bank of Japan were to intervene.

The reality is that markets continue to favor the positive carry, and I think that’s really the story here. The 160-yen level could be supported if we do pull back. Breaking the 161-yen level would be a psychological victory that could open up a huge move.

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