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Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, November 05, 2019

The Australian dollar as you can see has been rallying for some time now, breaking above the 0.69 level in a significant show strength. Ultimately though, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility as the Australian dollar so sensitive to the US/China trade situation. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to be very noisy to say the least, and therefore should be paid attention to along with those headlines.

AUD/USD Video 05.11.19

The US dollar is starting to soften a little bit, only in the sense that the Federal Reserve is looking to be somewhat easier with this monetary policy. However, the US/China trade situation continues to be an absolute mess, so that of course will weigh upon exports coming out of Australia. If that’s going to be the case, the market needs to take that into account, and it will weigh upon the Aussie. However, things suddenly get a bit better, then it’s likely that the Aussie will be the main beneficiary. Beyond all of that, the 200 day EMA is sitting just above and that of course will cause some issues as well. If the market were to clear the 200 day EMA, then I would anticipate a move towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level which is closer to the 0.71 handle. However, a certain amount of momentum will need to be built up in order to make that happen.

In the short term, I would anticipate a little bit of a pullback, but it should be noted that the most recent lows have been higher than the ones before it so it looks as if at least the underlying pressure is starting to build up.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

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