AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar struggles at resistance

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the day on Friday but has struggled to find any follow-through after the jobs number in the United States. Adding 300,000 jobs during the previous month of course is a very strong sign out of America, so I suspect at this point it’s likely that the US dollar will continue to strengthen. At this point, I believe that the 0.70 level will continue to be important, so if we can break down below that level I think that we could unwind towards the 0.68 level.

AUD/USD Video 07.01.19

The alternate scenario of course is that we break above the recent consolidation, which is essentially the 0.7075 level. If we can break above that level, then the market could go a bit higher, but I think that the 50 day EMA, pictured in red on the chart, but also offer resistance to start selling off again. Ultimately, I think that we have more downward pressure than up, but you need to find a short-term candle stick that show signs of exhaustion to take advantage of. A break above the 50 day EMA could send this market much higher, perhaps reaching towards 0.7250 but right now I don’t know that we have the wherewithal to have that happen. With that being the case, I think that we are probably going to be looking at a “fade the rally” type of market going forward. That doesn’t mean that it’s going to be easy, and quite frankly we are sitting on top of a massive amount of support, so although I am bearish of this pair, I’m only looking for short-term trades.