AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Trying To Keep Momentum Going

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, settling on more bullish pressure than bearish. Because of this, the market has cleared the 0.69 level, but has given back a little bit of the gains. At this point, the market is looking at the 200 day EMA just above, near the 0.6950 level. The 200 day EMA is just above and that will of course cause a bit of resistance as well. Ultimately, the Australian dollar will be greatly influenced by the US/China trade talks, which are all over the place right now. It appears that we will not see “phase 1” signed in Chile, so at this point the question then becomes whether or not the market can continue to go higher.

AUD/USD Video 01.11.19

As a general, this pair will move higher or lower with expectations of those trade negotiations, but the fact that things are much more conciliatory at this point does have people hoping that a trade deal is coming. If that situation starts to move forward and show signs of resolution, this currency pair will continue to go higher. Unfortunately, this pair is basically driven on headlines coming out of that scenario, which change quite frequently.

From the technical analysis standpoint, this is a market that is still very much in a downtrend and we are pressing against a potentially resistive level in the form of the moving average. With that being the case, it still is easier to short this market, but we have made a “higher high”, suggesting that the buyers are going to make a serious attempt to break out. If the day closes above the 200 day EMA, that’s a sign that the trend has finally changed.

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