AUD/USD Price Forecast – the Australian dollar bounces

The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the top of the hammer from the previous session. The market looks as if it is going to continue to go back and forth in this consolidation area, but at this point, the 50 day EMA above should offer significant resistance near the 0.68 level. All things being equal, the 0.6750 level is essentially “fair value.” All things being equal, this choppiness should continue, especially as we have the jobs figure coming out of the United States.

AUD/USD Video 04.10.19

A break down below the bottom of the hammer of course sends the market lower, perhaps reaching down to the 0.65 level underneath. At this point, the market will then be at a major support level that should offer plenty of interest. However, recently we have seen a lot of choppiness and back-and-forth action, and the fact that there is a US/China trade negotiation conversation going on in a few days might keep a little bit of hope left in the marketplace, which of course perhaps keeps the Australian dollar a little bit more buoyant than anticipated as it is so highly levered to the US/China trade situation. Beyond that, gold also has a bit of an upward pressure on the Aussie dollar as well, so with that in mind I anticipate that the next move is likely higher, but somewhat limited in its strength. I would be looking to fade rallies as they occur.

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