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Christopher Lewis

The Australian dollar has been back and forth during the course of the week, showing signs of confusion to say the least. This makes quite a bit of sense considering that the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut rates in the November meeting, but we are sitting on top of a massive support level that is based upon the 0.70 level. At this point, we are probably more likely to see more sideways action than anything else but on a daily close below the 0.70 level that could send fresh selling into the Aussie dollar. Quite frankly, the market got far ahead of itself and at the very least needs to pull back some. For what it is worth, it should also be noted that we started to struggle near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the massive move lower, so there is a bit of technical analysis that could suggest that maybe we continue the downtrend. That is a big “maybe” though.

AUD/USD Video 26.10.20

The 50 week EMA is currently near the 0.69 level, so that could come into play as well, but it certainly looks as if the Australian dollar is a bit “heavy” in this range. Until something breaks though, we are essentially trading between the 0.70 level underneath and the 0.73 level above. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to show volatility more than anything else, but I do think that the sellers are starting to make a little bit more of a push into this pair. The Aussie has been insulated due to the fact that it also has the backing of the Chinese economy, at least in theory. Because of this, it may put up more of a fight than other currency such as the Euro.

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