AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Reaches Towards 200 Week EMA

The Australian dollar has rallied during the course of the week to reach towards the 200 week EMA but has pulled back just a bit to show signs of hesitation around the 0.73 level. I do believe that there is a lot of noise just above, so even if we do rally, it is going to be difficult to truly take off to the upside. The market has been very sensitive to the idea of the Federal Reserve tapering, and now that the jobs number missed on Friday, then it is possible that we see a little bit of a push higher as that possibility seems to be on the sidelines, at least in the short term.

AUD/USD Video 11.10.21

That being said, any major “risk off move” will weigh upon the Aussie and will typically favor the US dollar before it is all said and done. The market breaking down below the most recent low could send this market towards the 0.70 level, just as a move above the 0.74 level above could open up a bigger move to the upside, perhaps a continuation of the rally that we had seen during the last several months until recently. I think the only thing you can probably count on at this point is a lot of noisy nonsense in this pair, as Australia does not help the situation either due to the fact that it continues to do everything it can to destroy its own economy through slowing down commerce and transportation via lockdowns. Until that mess is cleaned up, I think there is a little bit of a weight around the neck of the Aussie in general.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.