AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Build a Base

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 06.03.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of support just below, near the 0.67 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in this area because the 0.67 level has been so important in the past. Because of this, I think you see a lot of choppy and sideways action, but unfortunately that seems to be more the norm these days than anything else. If you are short term range bound trader, you probably are making quite a bit of money at the time, but for those who are more along the lines of a swing trader or even a momentum trader, you are probably being frustrated.

If we were to break down below the 0.6650 level, then we might have the possibility of dropping down to the 0.6450 level, which obviously would be a pro US dollar move. Because of this, you need to pay close attention to the US dollar on the whole, because it will give you a good idea as to where this pair will go. Furthermore, you should also pay attention to risk appetite in general, because the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to that, as it is levered to the overall global growth situation, and as long as we have issues out there, the Australian dollar will probably continue to look a bit soft.

If we were to rally from here, it’s likely that we go looking to the 0.69 region, where we have the 50-Day EMA, and of course the 200-Day EMA will offer a little bit of trouble, therefore it’s likely that we would see the area offer a bit of resistance. The overall choppy volatility will probably continue because there’s so much uncertainty out there. With this being the case, I am a bit hesitant to get overly exposed one way or another, but at this juncture it looks more like a “fade the rally” type of situation. However, if we were to break above the 0.70 level it would be an obvious bullish move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.