AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Look Threatened

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 26.05.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a bit of follow-through after the selloff on Wednesday. At this point, the Aussie has broken through the bottom of a major consolidation area and it looks like we are ready to go lower. The “measured move” of the consolidation rectangle we just broke out of suggests that we are going to drop 200 points, and that sets up for a move down to the 0.64 level. It is also worth noting that the 0.64 level was an area of importance in the past, so it all comes together quite nicely.

If we do rally from here, I anticipate that the 0.66 level should have enough “market memory” to offer a bit of resistance. Any sign of bullish pressure will more likely than not run into quite a bit of resistance in that area, and even if we were to break above there, I anticipate that the 50-Day EMA, presently sitting just below the 0.67 level” could also offer resistance. It is not until we break above that area that I would take a rally very seriously. In fact, I suspect that it’s probably going to be easier to simply fade rallies going forward, at least until we reached the projected target.

Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is not going to perform well in a situation where you have a lot of economic uncertainty and of course a softening situation for a lot of commodities. While a lot of traders look at the Aussie as a proxy for gold, the reality is that we are also looking at this currency through the prism of what’s going on in China. There are a lot of concerns in China at the moment, and that of course does keep a little bit of a lid on the Aussie. Because of this, I still favor the downside, unless course we see some type of explosive and positive news coming out of macroeconomics. The Federal Reserve remains very tight with this monetary policy, and that of course will continue to keep traders looking at the US dollar as well.

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