AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Test 200-Day EMA

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 22.06.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but found a 0.68 level to be a little too much to overcome. Because of this, the market looks like it is trying to reiterate the previous consolidation area that we have thrown prices over twice now. If we break down below the 200-Day EMA, then I assume that we will go back to the bottom of that rectangle, with perhaps a short-term pause at the 0.67 level, where the 50-Day EMA currently resides. This is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, and therefore it would be reasonable to expect that it could come into play.

After that, then the 0.66 level will be tested, which was the bottom of the previous consolidation area. This is a rather big move, but you can see just how out of control the market has been recently. The market continues to see a line of noisy behavior, but we can also argue that the market may find support in this area. If we turn around and break above the 0.68 level, we will re-threaten the 0.69 level. The 0.69 level of course is also a minor top along the way to a larger number, perhaps the 0.70 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.

As long as we see a lot of concerns around the world, I think the Australian dollar will continue to be thrown around as it is highly sensitive to risk appetite; with that being said, I think we got a situation where we will probably continue to see a lot of uncertainty. As long as that’s the case, you need to be very cautious with your position size because the volatility could worsen. With this being said, it does look like the US dollar is starting to flex its muscles against several currencies, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out, but it looks like we’ve got more downward pressure in the short term. With this, I’m looking toward the downside, but I also recognize that there are a couple of levels that could offer support.

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