AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Has a Volatile Ride on Thursday

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 16.06.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has been very noisy to say the least on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of “by on the dip” mentality come into the market. The 200-Day EMA seems to have offered enough support to turn things right back around and send the buyers into the market. We have broken back above the 0.68 level, which was the top of an overall consolidation region that we have been in. If we can continue to go higher, perhaps breaking above the heights of the Wednesday session, then it’s very likely that we could go looking to the 0.70 level given enough time.

If we were to turn around and break down below the 200-Day EMA, then it would be a very negative turn of events, perhaps opening up a move down to the 0.66 level as it is the bottom of the previous consolidation area. The market continues to be very parabolic, so I do think that a pullback is coming. After all, markets do not go in the same direction forever. However, it certainly looks as if they are going to try to do it.

Ultimately, this is a situation where we have a lot of noisy behavior in general, and therefore I think we have to pay close attention to risk appetite. Remember, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and therefore it will certainly have an effect on how this pair behaves. Short-term pullbacks should offer buying opportunities and the 200-Day EMA should be a level that a lot of people will pay close attention to.

That being said, I don’t like the fact that the market seems to be chasing the Aussie, and quite frankly the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates as a surprise in the middle of this move adds more fuel to the fire. However, the Federal Reserve is extraordinarily tight, and signaled yesterday that they are looking at 2 more rate hikes at the lease, which was a bit of a surprise. It’ll be interesting to see of this plays out but the Aussie is deathly overbought.

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