AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Looking for Direction

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 28.03.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to look for some type of directionality. That being said, from a longer-term standpoint, it does look like we are somewhat negative, and therefore the 0.66 level underneath is an area where we need to pay close attention to. If we break down below the 0.66 level, then it could go down to the 0.65 level, maybe even the 0.64 level.

Any rally at this point in time has to look at the 0.67 level above as potential resistance that extends all the way to the 0.68 level. The 50-Day EMA sits right around the 0.68 level and is grinding lower, so that should end up being quite a bit of a resistance barrier, and therefore I think you have a situation where if we were to break above that level, then the Aussie could take off to the upside, perhaps reaching to the 200-Day EMA above there.

On the other hand, if we do break down, I think that it would be a situation where the US dollar would be strengthening across the board, not only against the Aussie dollar, but against other major currencies such as the Euro, and the British pound. That being said, I think that the Australian dollar will of course continue to move based upon potential growth, as we have a lot of questions about the global growth situation going forward, there will be a lot of questions about the Aussie dollar itself.

The Australian dollar is highly levered to the commodity markets, as they are a major exporter of hard commodities such as iron and gold. Furthermore, copper is a major export as well, which obviously does quite well when the global economy is growing. It also has a strong correlation to the Chinese economy, which does seem to be a bit of a question at this point. All things being equal, it does look a bit heavy, but I also recognize that it will probably be a bit choppy in the short term as we try to sort out the next reason to get moving.

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