AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – January 17, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is surging to the upside shortly after the U.S. Forex opening. A weaker dollar is driving the Aussie higher today. The Greenback plunged after President-elect Donald Trump said the U.S. is losing its competitiveness because the dollar is “too strong”.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It turned up earlier on the trade through the December 14 top at .7524. This means the market is trading higher than it was when the Fed hiked its benchmark interest rate in December.

The next main top comes in at .7777. Despite the strong rally, the market is in the window of time for a closing price reversal top so watch for signs of sellers.

The main range is .7777 to .7159. Its retracement zone is .7468 to .7451. The market found support earlier on the lower or 50% level at .7468. Its price surge took out the Fibonacci level at .7541.  Holding above the Fib level will give the Aussie a strong upside bias and turn the retracement zone into support.

Forecast

Based on the current price at .7539 and the earlier price action, the direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7541 and .7537.

A sustained move over .7541 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside since the next target angle doesn’t come in until .7657.

A sustained move under .7537 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum, the Aussie could retrace today’s earlier rally. The best downside target is the main 50% level at .7468 and the uptrending angle at .7459.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7541 and .7537 today. Look for the upside bias to continue on a move over .7541 and for an intraday bias to begin on a sustained move under .7537.